Fantasy Football League Scoring – PPR or No PPR?

Are Points Per Reception fantasy football leagues the best option? Let’s take a look at some NFL receiving stats over the past 10 years and see. My data included every individual season of the top 100 wide receivers over the past 10 years. Continue reading Fantasy Football League Scoring – PPR or No PPR?

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A Unified Theory of Yards Per Attempt in NFL Quarterbacks

In my first look at the Yards per Attempt statistic in National Football League quarterbacks, I found there was a general correlation between Football Outsiders’ offensive line rankings and Yards per Attempt. Although I’m happy to see that there was some correlation, it made future predictions near impossible because FO owns the offensive line rankings.

In this piece, I’m going to see if we can create a better formula for predicting YPA than the one discussed in this Pro Football Focus article. Jonathan Bales used the average of a quarterback’s previous three seasons to predict future YPA numbers. Let’s see how accurate his predictions were for 2012, and how we can improve them. Continue reading A Unified Theory of Yards Per Attempt in NFL Quarterbacks

Yards per Attempt and 2012 NFL Quarterbacks

This Pro Football Focus article by Jonathan Bales looked at the Yards per Attempt statistic in quarterbacks at the NFL level. He discovered that a quarterback’s Yards per Attempt average over his three most recent seasons will give us a pretty good indication of what he’ll do the following year. Let’s take a look at how his predictions fared, and how we can explain the biggest outlier.

Philip Rivers, San Diego – Rivers had a Y/A average of 8.5 over the past three seasons, despite putting up 7.9 Y/A in 2011. We should have seen that number move toward the average, but through week 14 in the 2012 season he’s recorded only 6.8 Y/A, a drop of nearly 1.67 Y/A. What are some reasons that Rivers’ Y/A fled even further away from the average? Continue reading Yards per Attempt and 2012 NFL Quarterbacks

Fantasy Football Sabermetrics – Pythagorean Win Expectation

If we’re talking about fantasy football sabermetrics, then the Pythagorean Win Expectation has to be a part of the discussion. The PWE is a way to look at the points scored to points against differential and see how that correlate to wins. Bill James is credited for creating it as a way to show which teams were most influenced by luck in baseball. Continue reading Fantasy Football Sabermetrics – Pythagorean Win Expectation

Fantasy Football and Wins Above Replacement Pt. 3

As I found in my most recent research, if we look at players in a given fantasy football position, we can see the approximate value of each player at the end of the year. If you follow that link you’ll find the historical average of each quarterback’s value over the past 10 years. In this post, we’ll take a look at the rest of the traditional positions in fantasy football.

Let’s look at the running back position. Continue reading Fantasy Football and Wins Above Replacement Pt. 3

Fantasy Football and Wins Above Replacement Pt. 2

Fantasy Football Quarterbacks and Wins Above Replacement

For the first of this three-part article, go to Fantasy Football and Wins Above Replacement

After doing some previous research and finding out how I could define Wins Above Replacement, I decided to take formula and attempt to see the distribution of my statistic historically.  This involved taking data from ProFootballReference.com and plugging it into my model.

I gathered data for quarterbacks over the past ten seasons and found the WAR gained per game for each player.  It gave me the Wins Above Replacement per Week for each QB, each year for the past 10 years. Below is a graph illustrating the past ten seasons of QB play in this particular format: Continue reading Fantasy Football and Wins Above Replacement Pt. 2

Fantasy Football and Wins Above Replacement

Recently, I’ve started to read up on sabermetrics in baseball.  I wanted to take the same methods for an area almost entirely devoid of sabermetrics – fantasy football – and apply it there.

Despite the abundance of numbers everywhere, many fantasy football managers aren’t thinking optimally. The concept of WAR completely changed the way 30 Major League Baseball team managers looked at their teams.  Wouldn’t it be great to change the thoughts of millions of fantasy football players too?  It’ll definitely make me less money, but it’ll also be twice as fun.

Wins Above Replacement in a Fantasy Football League

Wins Above Replacement shows us how valuable a given player is in his respective league when he is compared to an ‘average’ player in that league. With WAR, we can see which players are the most valuable, not necessarily the most skilled (although they are often related).

Instead of searching for a WAR number for the National Football League, I decided to take a shot at finding how valuable certain players are to my fantasy football league. Touchdowns are worth different points for each respective position on the field, and interceptions count for zero. The players in this particular league rarely interact with each other on any real field. We’re creating an entirely new league in which the players rarely interact with each other in real life.

Everything else about the league remains equal to the real thing – players are assigned values and drafted, players are traded for each other, and players are traded for unquantifiable draft picks in future seasons. With a WAR statistic exclusive to this league, I could find more insight into those three situations. Continue reading Fantasy Football and Wins Above Replacement