Better MLB Narratives Using Advanced Statistics

Last night, Phillies pitcher Roy Halladay pitched a stinker of a game against the Indians. Phillies fans were treated to a bunch of stories on a role player. I’m happy to supply a better narrative instead.

NARRATIVE: Roy Halladay Lost The Pitch that Made Him Roy Halladay.

Halladay’s previous three starts were successes – Baseball Reference gave them Game Scores of 69, 69, and 72, on a scale of 1-100. What helped? He relied heavily on his curveball, which he threw once every four pitches. ~60% of those curveballs fell in for a strike. Halladay threw his cutter less frequently as well. When he did throw it, the pitch landed as a strike ~75% of the time.

What happened last night?  Continue reading Better MLB Narratives Using Advanced Statistics

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Fantasy Football League Scoring – PPR or No PPR?

Are Points Per Reception fantasy football leagues the best option? Let’s take a look at some NFL receiving stats over the past 10 years and see. My data included every individual season of the top 100 wide receivers over the past 10 years. Continue reading Fantasy Football League Scoring – PPR or No PPR?

A Unified Theory of Yards Per Attempt in NFL Quarterbacks

In my first look at the Yards per Attempt statistic in National Football League quarterbacks, I found there was a general correlation between Football Outsiders’ offensive line rankings and Yards per Attempt. Although I’m happy to see that there was some correlation, it made future predictions near impossible because FO owns the offensive line rankings.

In this piece, I’m going to see if we can create a better formula for predicting YPA than the one discussed in this Pro Football Focus article. Jonathan Bales used the average of a quarterback’s previous three seasons to predict future YPA numbers. Let’s see how accurate his predictions were for 2012, and how we can improve them. Continue reading A Unified Theory of Yards Per Attempt in NFL Quarterbacks

Fantasy Football and Wins Above Replacement Pt. 3

As I found in my most recent research, if we look at players in a given fantasy football position, we can see the approximate value of each player at the end of the year. If you follow that link you’ll find the historical average of each quarterback’s value over the past 10 years. In this post, we’ll take a look at the rest of the traditional positions in fantasy football.

Let’s look at the running back position. Continue reading Fantasy Football and Wins Above Replacement Pt. 3

Fantasy Football and Wins Above Replacement Pt. 2

Fantasy Football Quarterbacks and Wins Above Replacement

For the first of this three-part article, go to Fantasy Football and Wins Above Replacement

After doing some previous research and finding out how I could define Wins Above Replacement, I decided to take formula and attempt to see the distribution of my statistic historically.  This involved taking data from ProFootballReference.com and plugging it into my model.

I gathered data for quarterbacks over the past ten seasons and found the WAR gained per game for each player.  It gave me the Wins Above Replacement per Week for each QB, each year for the past 10 years. Below is a graph illustrating the past ten seasons of QB play in this particular format: Continue reading Fantasy Football and Wins Above Replacement Pt. 2